Douglas, Wyoming 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

077
FXUS65 KCYS 081153
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
553 AM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild to seasonably warm temperatures this week, along with
  elevated to near critical fire weather conditions at times. A
  Red Flag Warning is in effect for the southern Nebraska
  panhandle this afternoon.

- Elevated to high winds possible for the southeast Wyoming wind
  prones on Today and Wednesday. Wind gusts over 50 MPH are
  likely.

- Isolated showers are possible in the northern Nebraska
  panhandle Tuesday and Wednesday with some gusty winds
  possible. Some snowfall will also be possible in the Sierra
  and Snowy Mountain Ranges today and tonight, but snowfall
  amounts will be an inch or less.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 259 AM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

Latest water vapor loop was showing a shortwave moving towards
northwest Montana with plenty of jet energy streaming through
the Intermountain West. This jet energy will continue to push
into southeast Wyoming today along with good subsidence
underneath the right exit region of the upper level jet. This
will favor much stronger winds over the forecast area today
compared to yesterday. The models are also indicating fairly
strong subsidence over the southern Nebraska panhandle and near
the spine of the Laramie Range. The peak 700-750mb winds from
the GFS/NAM12/HRRR are progged to extend from the Ferris
Mountains east towards Bordeaux today. The latest IR loop was
also showing quite a bit of mid and high clouds streaming in
with the upper level jet. The strong winds will certainly meet
red flag criteria this afternoon across most of the area this
afternoon, but the minimum humidities will be quite tricky based
on the increase in cloud cover. For now, we went ahead and
issued a Red Flag Warning for the southern Nebraska panhandle
this afternoon, but we will need to keep an eye on the northern
Panhandle as well. For now, I am not as confident about the Red
Flag criteria being met in the northern Nebraska panhandle this
afternoon, due to the potential thicker cloud cover from the
upper level jet which may boost the humidity a bit more.
We may also need to keep an eye on wind speeds around Bordeaux
this afternoon, due to the presence of good subsidence and
tighter height gradients. In addition, we cannot rule out some
virga showers late this afternoon and tonight across the
northern panhandle with light snow showers possible in the
mountains due to good upslope flow.

The wind speeds are expected to back off a bit tonight, with the
exception of Arlington where the height gradient is expected to
strengthen along with better subsidence. The GFS is also showing
some decent subsidence developing along the southern Laramie
range/foothills. This combined with the potential for mountain
wave activity may allow wind speeds to creep up in that region
as well. Therefore, we bumped up wind speeds a bit across the
I-80 summit/foothills late tonight with some of these stronger
winds possibly bleeding into central Laramie county on
Wednesday. Once again will be flirting with Red Flag criteria on
Wednesday across most areas east of the I-25 corridor. The main
thing we will need to keep our eye on is the potential for a
back door frontal boundary to push through parts of the Nebraska
panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 259 AM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

The upper level ridge axis is progged to finally build over our
region Thursday through Saturday. We will most likely not feel
full affects of the much warmer temperatures with this ridge
until Friday and Saturday. In fact, the ECMWF Extreme Forecast
Index shift of tails is showing high confidence of well above
normal temperatures with even some records possible on the
aforementioned days. Along with the warmth will be very dry and
windy conditions which will most likely favor more critical
fire weather conditions. After this brief warmup we are looking
at the WPC clusters bringing a fairly strong trof into the
region early next week which will brings some strong winds,
cooler temperatures along with a chance of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

Gusty west to northwest winds at 20kt to 35kts with gusts to
up to 40kts can be expected today as a strong disturbance moves
through northern Montana. This will disturbance may also bring
a few showers to the northern Nebraska panhandle this afternoon
and evening. We went ahead and kept a small probability of light
showers during the afternoon into the early evening at the
KAIA/KCDR TAF sites. Some gusty winds of 35 to 40kts may
accompany these showers. Otherwise, wind speeds should taper off
after sunset with VFR conditions prevailing.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this
     evening for NEZ436-437.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC